XDefiant deserved better than this, but it won't be the last live service game killed before its time
It's harder than ever to launch a successful live service game
It's been a tough week. It's always hard to watch people in the industry losing jobs. Part of why I've stepped away from journalism full-time is because it's difficult to watch people you respect making excellent games and then get punished because they didn't find an audience. Another big part is people making jokes about it on social media, ignoring the fact every redundancy is someone losing their livelihood. After a while, it wears you down.
You'll have to excuse the more dour tone. Redundancies always get me down, but I've also had some bad personal news this week that has me a little off-kilter. But it's okay, we'll get through it together. If nothing else, enjoy the new logo, made by incredible designer (and my friend) Nel Antopina. which makes us look a whole lot more professional.
This week's newsletter is about XDefiant, a passable multiplayer shooter that deserved better than being taken offline after six months, developed by a team that deserved better than losing their jobs for it. But, I also want to pay respects to those laid off at Torn Banner working on No More Room In Hell 2 and the team at Sweet Bandits who worked on 2023's exceptional Deceive Inc., which I adored.
All of them deserved better and that was just the layoffs in a single day. I can't fit in the entirety of the games industry layoffs into this newsletter, but at the risk of sounding emotional, it still makes me squirm every single time I see news of them.
But XDefiant won't be the last live service game to crash and burn. Not when every games company that isn't Activision is groping around in the dark to try and find their next hit, as players increasingly prefer to play live service games that released a while back instead of investing their time and money into something new.
For NME in 2023 I wrote about how the AAA games industry was doomed. I stand by it. However, one part points to what no doubt caused XDefiant to close down six months after its launch:
"Even at a surface level, the issues are obvious: video games used to be made by a handful of people and sold for about the same price as they do today. Now, games are hideously expensive, take years to make and the audience now spends more money and time on their favourite games – spending less of both on newer releases."
As a free-to-play game, XDefiant just wasn't making enough money. That's the sort of industry-leading analysis you read the newsletter for, eh? But several industry figures I spoke to about XDefiant over the summer, internal and external to Ubisoft, all said the game had around 10-20,000 players across all platforms.
The key thing to consider is the burn rate for a product and how much cash a company has in the bank. Ubisoft's finances are hard to define, but George Osborn from the excellent Video Games Industry Memo, made the point to me that Ubisoft "investing in a number of unsuccessful projects in quick succession naturally suggests they’ve spent a chunk of change without getting the return they need."
"I think their financials show that there is value in the business," says Osborn. "Assassin’s Creed Shadows pre-orders looked good before the delay was announced, Siege holds up well and a few things like Just Dance keep kicking cash in."
But it's easier to estimate the burn rate. XDefiant development was led by Ubisoft San Francisco, one of the most expensive cities in the world to live in, and as part of the game closing and the layoffs around it, it's closing that office.
As video games moved to digital storefronts, game preservationists suggested we could be entering a lost age of video games. I'd posit that we're now firmly in that era. When XDefiant closes in June 2025, there will be no way to play the game, and if you haven't already got it installed, it won't let you play now. Considering XDefiant is, with all the best will in the world, a bit average, it's unlikely fans will pool together to bring it back. Hell, look at Concord, a game I got a key for while away for a couple of weeks, and the game had been pulled down before I even got the chance to come home and play it.
If 2024 has one message, it's that live service games aren't something that anyone can jump into at any time. The space has been colonised by popular titles with established player bases, and to make an impact now the game is going to have to be incredible or the studio is going to have to be really rich. Even this is no guarantee of success. This isn't a "games is doomed" moment, but the circumstances out there – and the fact that on balance you'll probably fail – means this isn't an easy fix. It seems likely that the games industry is going to continue to struggle before it gets better.
Out this week
Christmas is looming so it's quietened right down, but I'm quietly excited for Exfil from Misultin Studios. It seems like it could be cracking. We'll see how it goes. I wrote about it at the bottom of my Echo Point Nova newsletter, if you're that way inclined. I'm also quietly interested in Bloodshed, which bills itself as a roguelite-style FPS Vampire Survivors with a '90s aesthetic. The trailer looks like it might have some juice, but I'll have to give it a play for myself.
Gibs
- You can watch the PC Gaming Show Most Wanted 2024, and you should - I worked really hard on it, alongside a team of absolute superstars. Sorry to shill my work, but also I'm proud of what I did here.
- I played Delta Force a bunch last week. It feels like Battlefield 3 when it gets things right, but it doesn't have many good ideas of its own. It's still great fun, though.
- While we're talking about studios that deserved more, this Eurogamer writeup on Roll7 is worth a read. Roll7 shut this year after releasing the superlative Rollerdrome. Every game Roll7 made was fascinating and intricate and the fact the company is now closed feels like an injustice, frankly.
- This Bluesky post from analyst Mat Piscatella shows how messed up discoverability is right now. If you're not first you're dead last.
- Fortnite is adding a 5v5 FPS mode, Ballistic. Playtests start today.
- The Cure for music this week.